Napoli vs Osasuna
Wed, Aug 5, 04:30 PM
AI prediction
Home Win
Confidence 40/100
Model verdict
High risk
Home Win
Napoli (WLWWW) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1 for Osasuna (LLWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 40/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
40/100
Confidence
40/100
Head-to-Head
Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Napoli at home have been more effective than Osasuna away, with Napoli’s 4W-0D-2L record and a stronger goal difference from 12 scored and 8 conceded across 6 matches. Their recent run also leans positive, showing WLWWW, while Osasuna’s away form is weaker with LLWDL and only 1 win in 6.
The matchup profile suggests Napoli can create the better scoring chances, but Osasuna are not completely out of it defensively, conceding 8 in 6 matches and keeping 1 clean sheet. Still, Osasuna’s low scoring output of 6 goals means they may struggle to consistently match Napoli’s attacking output.
For goals, the probabilities are close to a coin flip, with over 2.5 goals at 49.8% and both teams to score at 51.8%. That points to a fairly balanced likelihood of a moderate-scoring game where Napoli’s edge could show up, but not necessarily as a comfortable margin.
Overall, the home win lean is supported by Napoli’s better record and recent form, but the confidence is only moderate (40) and the risk is high, reflecting the relatively tight goal and scoring indicators.
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Tue, 04 Aug 2026 21:45 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.