Napoli vs Celta Vigo
Sat, Aug 8, 07:00 PM
AI prediction
Home Win
Confidence 40/100
Model verdict
High risk
Home Win
Napoli (WLWWW) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1 for Celta Vigo (LLLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 40/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
40/100
Confidence
40/100
Head-to-Head
Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Napoli’s home record is stronger than Celta Vigo’s away record, with Napoli going 4W 0D 2L at home versus Celta’s 1W 0D 3L away. Napoli has also scored more overall, 12 goals to Celta’s 3, and their defense has been steadier with 8 conceded compared to Celta’s 6 in fewer matches.
In recent form, Napoli looks more consistent, showing WLWWW across their last six matches, while Celta Vigo’s recent run is LLLW across their last four. That gap in form supports the idea that Napoli can control more of the match, even if it’s not a guarantee.
The goal-related indicators are fairly balanced. Napoli’s scoring output and Celta’s conceded goals suggest a decent chance of over 2.5 goals (49.7%), and both teams to score is slightly favored (51.1%), implying Celta may still create chances despite their poor away results.
Overall, the home win lean is reflected in the probabilities (60.7% for Napoli), but the confidence is only moderate and the risk is high, so the draw or a tighter game remains plausible.
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Fri, 07 Aug 2026 22:12 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.