Nacional Asuncion vs Club Guarani

Nacional Asuncion at home has a relatively strong defensive profile, conceding 17 goals in 22 matches and keeping 10 clean sheets. Their recent form includes two wins and two draws in the last five results (LDWWD), which suggests they can avoid heavy defeats and keep games controlled. Club Guarani’s away record is more win-heavy, with 14 wins in 22 overall and 44 goals scored while conceding 20. Their recent form (WLLWW) shows they can score, but it also includes two losses, so they are not consistently dominant in every stretch. The goal expectation leans toward a lower-scoring game because both teams’ season totals point to moderate scoring rather than high volume: Nacional has 26 goals scored and 17 conceded, while Guarani has 44 scored and 20 conceded. Even with Guarani’s better attacking output, the combined profile supports the under 2.5 direction, and the probabilities reflect that the match is slightly more likely to stay under 2.5 goals than to exceed it. There is still meaningful risk given Guarani’s ability to win and score (away wins and 44 goals overall), and the “both teams to score” probability is relatively high at 49.6%. With a confidence score of 52 and high risk level, the under 2.5 call looks plausible but not strongly secure.