Motala vs IF Karlstad II
AI prediction
Home Win
Confidence 71/100
Home Win
Motala (WLDLD) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1 for IF Karlstad II (LLLLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 71/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
71/100
Strongest cover
12
75.0% probability
Risk classification
Medium
25.0% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
2 sources
11 price observations
Full distribution
Market probabilities
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Evidence ledger
Motala
5/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 1.29
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
IF Karlstad II
1/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 1.00
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Matchup xG signal
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.
Price interpretation
Value read
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
Model card
- Version
- livewin-hybrid-v0.6
- Data source
- Licensed live data feed
- Statistics baseline
- 2026 season
- Odds timestamp
- Aug 23, 08:25 AM UTC
- Optional coverage
- H2H available · odds available
- Confidence
- Signal agreement score
- Risk
- Medium · uncertainty remains
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.
Head-to-Head
IF Karlstad II 1-3 Motala
2026-06-21T16:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Odds Comparison
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw 1X2 | DafabetBest price +5.0% | 3.70 | 27.0% | 25.0% | -2.0% |
| Unibet | 3.35 | 29.9% | 25.0% | -4.9% | |
Away 1X2 | DafabetBest price +9.2% | 3.55 | 28.2% | 27.0% | -1.2% |
| Unibet | 2.95 | 33.9% | 27.0% | -6.9% | |
Home 1X2 | UnibetBest price +3.3% | 2.02 | 49.5% | 48.0% | -1.5% |
| Dafabet | 1.89 | 52.9% | 48.0% | -4.9% | |
Under 2.5 Totals | Unibet | 2.15 | 46.5% | 42.5% | -4.0% |
Over 2.5 Totals | Unibet | 1.57 | 63.7% | 57.5% | -6.2% |
Draw or Away Double Chance | Unibet | 1.58 | 63.3% | 0.0% | -63.3% |
Home or Draw Double Chance | Unibet | 1.27 | 78.7% | 0.0% | -78.7% |
Home or Away Double Chance | Unibet | 1.21 | 82.6% | 0.0% | -82.6% |
Model reasoning
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Sun, 23 Aug 2026 11:35 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
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Team hubs: Motala predictions · IF Karlstad II predictions
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.