Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Pre-match
Medium risk

Motala vs IF Karlstad II

Sun, Aug 23, 12:00 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 71/100

Model verdict
Medium risk

Home Win

Motala (WLDLD) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1 for IF Karlstad II (LLLLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 71/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

71/100

Confidence
71/100

Strongest cover

12

75.0% probability

Risk classification

Medium

25.0% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

2 sources

11 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

M win48%
Draw25%
IKI win27%

Goals

Over 1.576.7%
Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Motala

5/15 recent form points

WLDLD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.29
Shots on target
Unavailable

IF Karlstad II

1/15 recent form points

LLLLD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 23, 08:25 AM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

IF Karlstad II 1-3 Motala

2026-06-21T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Draw
1X2
DafabetBest price +5.0%3.7027.0%25.0%-2.0%
Unibet3.3529.9%25.0%-4.9%
Away
1X2
DafabetBest price +9.2%3.5528.2%27.0%-1.2%
Unibet2.9533.9%27.0%-6.9%
Home
1X2
UnibetBest price +3.3%2.0249.5%48.0%-1.5%
Dafabet1.8952.9%48.0%-4.9%
Under 2.5
Totals
Unibet2.1546.5%42.5%-4.0%
Over 2.5
Totals
Unibet1.5763.7%57.5%-6.2%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
Unibet1.5863.3%0.0%-63.3%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
Unibet1.2778.7%0.0%-78.7%
Home or Away
Double Chance
Unibet1.2182.6%0.0%-82.6%

Model reasoning

Motala at home have a balanced but slightly positive profile, with 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses across 17 matches, and they’ve scored 22 while conceding 22. Their clean sheets are 4, suggesting they can keep games controlled at times, and their recent form includes a win mixed with draws and losses (WLDLD). IF Karlstad II away have struggled more, with only 2 wins and 10 losses in 17 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 30. They also have just 2 clean sheets on the road, and their latest run is mostly defeats (LLLLD), which points to difficulty generating results consistently. The goal outlook leans toward a more open game: Motala’s and Karlstad II’s season scoring and concession numbers support the 57.5% chance of over 2.5 goals, and the 53.5% chance of both teams scoring fits the idea that neither side is reliably shutting the other out. Given the home/away win probabilities (48.0% Motala, 27.0% Karlstad II) and the overall goal indicators, a Motala home win is a reasonable lean, but not a lock, reflected by the medium risk level and the relatively close draw probability (25.0%).

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sun, 23 Aug 2026 11:35 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Motala predictions · IF Karlstad II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.