Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (LLWLW) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.3 for Smorgon (LWLDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 70/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
70/100
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3-0 Smorgon
2026-08-01T16:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Smorgon 1-0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2025-11-23T12:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2-1 Smorgon
2025-06-27T16:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1-1 Smorgon
2025-02-01T10:30:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Smorgon 0-0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2024-03-22T13:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Smorgon 1-1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2024-02-28T10:30:00+01:00
BTTS
Final score
3-0
Pre-kickoff call
BTTS Yes · 59.0% → Lost
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
AI prediction
BTTS Yes
Confidence 70/100
Strongest cover
12
72.0% probability
Risk classification
Medium
28.0% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
4 sources
33 price observations
Full distribution
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
6/15 recent form points
Smorgon
7/15 recent form points
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/8 and Over 2.5 in 3/8.
Price interpretation
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
Under 2.5
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 0-0 Smorgon
2022-11-05T12:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Smorgon 3-1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2022-07-17T16:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw 1X2 | DafabetBest price +3.9% | 3.30 | 30.3% | 28.0% | -2.3% |
| Superbet | 3.25 | 30.8% | 28.0% | -2.8% | |
| Marathonbet | 3.08 | 32.5% | 28.0% | -4.5% | |
| 1xBet | 3.08 | 32.5% | 28.0% | -4.5% | |
Away 1X2 | DafabetBest price +2.0% | 2.90 | 34.5% | 31.6% | -2.9% |
| Superbet | 2.85 | 35.1% | 31.6% | -3.5% | |
| 1xBet | 2.84 | 35.2% | 31.6% | -3.6% | |
| Marathonbet | 2.78 | 36.0% | 31.6% | -4.4% | |
Home 1X2 | 1xBetBest price +3.2% | 2.36 | 42.4% | 40.4% | -2.0% |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 42.7% | 40.4% | -2.3% | |
| Dafabet | 2.23 | 44.8% | 40.4% | -4.4% | |
| Superbet | 2.22 | 45.0% | 40.4% | -4.6% | |
Under 2.5 Totals | SuperbetBest price +1.2% | 2.32 | 43.1% | 39.8% | -3.3% |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 43.9% | 39.8% | -4.1% | |
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 43.9% | 39.8% | -4.1% | |
Over 2.5 Totals | SuperbetBest price +0.4% | 1.51 | 66.2% | 60.2% | -6.0% |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 66.7% | 60.2% | -6.5% | |
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 66.7% | 60.2% | -6.5% | |
No BTTS | 1xBetBest price +1.0% | 2.59 | 38.6% | 36.0% | -2.6% |
| Superbet | 2.57 | 38.9% | 36.0% | -2.9% | |
| Marathonbet | 2.53 | 39.5% | 36.0% | -3.5% | |
Yes BTTS | SuperbetBest price +0.9% | 1.44 | 69.4% | 64.0% | -5.4% |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 70.4% | 64.0% | -6.4% | |
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 70.4% | 64.0% | -6.4% | |
Draw or Away Double Chance | SuperbetBest price +2.2% | 1.52 | 65.8% | 0.0% | -65.8% |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 68.0% | 0.0% | -68.0% | |
| 1xBet | 1.47 | 68.0% | 0.0% | -68.0% | |
Home or Draw Double Chance | MarathonbetBest price +0.3% | 1.33 | 75.2% | 0.0% | -75.2% |
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 75.2% | 0.0% | -75.2% | |
| Superbet | 1.32 | 75.8% | 0.0% | -75.8% | |
Home or Away Double Chance | MarathonbetBest price +0.5% | 1.27 | 78.7% | 0.0% | -78.7% |
| 1xBet | 1.27 | 78.7% | 0.0% | -78.7% | |
| Superbet | 1.25 | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0% |
Ranked probability score
0.2036 (uniform ≈ 0.222)
Recorded Sat, 01 Aug 2026 13:56 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.