Mohammedan vs Police
Wed, Aug 5, 09:30 AM
AI prediction
Away Win
Confidence 45/100
Model verdict
High risk
Away Win
Mohammedan (LLWDW) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.4 for Police (WDWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 45/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
45/100
Confidence
45/100
Head-to-Head
Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Police have the stronger overall season profile, with 6 wins in 11 matches compared to Mohammedan’s 4 wins in 13. Police also have a much better defensive record, conceding 8 goals versus Mohammedan’s 20, and they’ve kept 5 clean sheets while Mohammedan has only 1.
The recent form leans slightly toward Police as well. Mohammedan’s latest run is LLWDW, which includes two losses, while Police’s recent form is WDWLW, showing more consistency with fewer defeats.
The goal outlook supports a relatively open game. Both teams’ scoring indicators point to a decent chance of goals, with the probabilities showing 51.8% for over 2.5 goals and 56.4% for both teams to score, which fits Police’s ability to win while still allowing some scoring.
Even with Police’s edge, the confidence is moderate and the risk is high because the match is close in the win market (away win 41.9% vs home win 31.6% and draw 26.5%). That draw probability suggests Mohammedan can still make this competitive, especially given their two clean-sheet-less matches in the recent form.
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Tue, 04 Aug 2026 23:39 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.