Mitundu Baptist vs Karonga United

Mitundu Baptist at home have a fairly balanced record with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses from 11 matches, and they’ve kept 4 clean sheets while scoring 10 goals and conceding 11. Their recent run includes a mix of results (LWDWD), suggesting they can avoid defeat but are not consistently dominant. Karonga United’s away record is weaker overall, with 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses from 11 matches. They’ve scored 12 goals but conceded 19, and their clean sheets are lower (3), which points to more defensive vulnerability on the road. Their recent form (LDLLW) also shows inconsistency, though they did manage a win recently. The matchup leans toward a home win rather than a draw, with home win probability at 54.1% versus 25.4% for a draw and 20.5% for an away win. For goals, both teams to score is essentially even at 50.0%, and over 2.5 goals is slightly less likely at 46.5%, so a tight game is plausible. Overall, the home win call fits the relative home advantage and Karonga’s higher concession rate away, but the moderate confidence (67) and the close draw likelihood keep the outcome from looking fully secure.