Mirassol vs Flamengo

Flamengo’s away profile looks stronger than Mirassol’s home results. Flamengo have 12 wins in 21 matches overall with a 39-18 goal record, while Mirassol have 6 wins in 21 matches with 24-30 in goals. That gap in both results and goal difference supports the away win lean. Defensively, Flamengo also stand out. They’ve conceded only 18 goals across 21 matches and have 9 clean sheets, whereas Mirassol have just 1 clean sheet and concede more than they score. This combination makes it more plausible that Flamengo can control the game even on the road. The goal-related probabilities point to a fairly open outcome. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48.6%, and both teams to score at 53.6%, which fits with Mirassol’s tendency to concede and Flamengo’s ability to score. Still, the away win confidence is not extremely high, aligning with the medium risk level. Overall, the 43.9% away win probability is the best of the three match outcomes, but the draw at 27.1% keeps the result from looking fully one-sided.