Millonarios vs Deportivo Pasto

Millonarios at home have a balanced but slightly stronger profile than Deportivo Pasto, with 8 wins in 21 matches and a positive goal difference from 32 scored and 24 conceded. Their recent form reads LWDLW, suggesting they are more capable of avoiding defeat than Pasto, whose last five results are LLLLL. Deportivo Pasto’s away record is weaker in terms of outcomes, with 9 losses in 23 matches and a near-neutral scoring output (32 scored) but worse defensive numbers (33 conceded). That combination points to a tougher time generating results away, especially against a home side that has kept 7 clean sheets. The goal-related indicators also lean toward a Millonarios-leaning game script: over 2.5 goals is estimated at 52.9%, and both teams to score at 54.7%. With Pasto conceding more than they keep out, Millonarios’ home edge aligns with a higher chance of scoring, even if a draw remains plausible. Overall, the home win call fits the matchup trends, with home win probability at 55.1% versus 24.1% for a draw and 20.8% for an away win. Confidence is moderate rather than high, given the middling goal expectations and the still-present chance of a low-scoring or tightly contested result.