Middlesbrough vs Wrexham

Wrexham’s away profile looks stronger in the limited sample, with 3 wins in 4 matches and 10 goals scored versus 7 conceded. Middlesbrough at home has only played once, losing 0-4 and failing to score, which leaves them with a weak starting point for this matchup. The goal trends also lean toward Wrexham. Wrexham’s 10 scored in 4 games suggests they can create chances, while Middlesbrough’s 4 conceded in their only match indicates vulnerability at the back. That aligns with the higher probability for over 2.5 goals and for both teams to score. The draw is still plausible given Middlesbrough’s small sample size and Wrexham’s conceded goals not being negligible, so the away win is not a lock. With a confidence score of 35 and a high risk level, this reads more like a lean toward Wrexham rather than a strong certainty. Overall, Wrexham’s better win record and goal output are the main reasons for the away win lean, supported by the market-style probabilities for goals.