Mexico W vs El Salvador W

Mexico W at home have been hard to break down in this small sample, with 3 clean sheets in 3 matches and 0 goals conceded. They’ve also been productive, scoring 8 goals across those games, and their recent form shows they’ve avoided defeat recently with a DWW run. El Salvador W’s away results are mixed but not weak, with 2 wins and 1 loss, and they’ve kept things relatively tight defensively, conceding 2 in 3 matches. However, their scoring output is lower here, with only 2 goals in total, which limits how often they can turn close games into wins. The market probabilities align with this: Mexico W win is rated at 49.5% versus 22.4% for El Salvador W, while the draw is still a meaningful 28.1%. For goals, over 2.5 is only 40.2%, and both teams to score is 44.9%, which fits the idea of a likely Mexico edge but not necessarily a high-scoring match. Overall, the home win lean is reasonable given Mexico’s clean-sheet record and stronger goal output, but the moderate confidence reflects El Salvador’s ability to stay competitive and the sizable draw likelihood.