AI prediction
Melbourne Victory II (WLDWW) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.2 for Melbourne Srbija (WWLLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 76/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
76/100
Melbourne Srbija 2-1 Melbourne Victory II
2026-04-25T10:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw 1X2 | Bet365Best price +9.0% | 4.00 | 25.0% | 23.3% | -1.7% |
| Marathonbet | 3.82 | 26.2% |
This forecast was recorded on Mon, 03 Aug 2026 01:32 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
Over 2.5 Goals
Confidence 76/100
Strongest cover
12
76.7% probability
Risk classification
Medium
23.3% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
6 sources
50 price observations
Full distribution
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Melbourne Victory II
10/15 recent form points
Melbourne Srbija
9/15 recent form points
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.
Price interpretation
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
| 23.3% |
| -2.9% |
| Unibet | 3.70 | 27.0% | 23.3% | -3.7% |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 27.8% | 23.3% | -4.5% |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 28.6% | 23.3% | -5.3% |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 29.4% | 23.3% | -6.1% |
Away 1X2 | BetfairBest price +8.1% | 3.50 | 28.6% | 26.5% | -2.1% |
| Marathonbet | 3.42 | 29.2% | 26.5% | -2.7% |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 30.3% | 26.5% | -3.8% |
| Unibet | 3.20 | 31.3% | 26.5% | -4.8% |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 33.3% | 26.5% | -6.8% |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 33.3% | 26.5% | -6.8% |
Home 1X2 | BetfairBest price +2.0% | 1.85 | 54.1% | 50.2% | -3.9% |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.2% | -4.4% |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.2% | -4.4% |
| Unibet | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.2% | -4.4% |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 55.9% | 50.2% | -5.7% |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 57.1% | 50.2% | -6.9% |
Under 2.5 Totals | UnibetBest price +14.6% | 2.90 | 34.5% | 35.9% | +1.4% |
| Marathonbet | 2.52 | 39.7% | 35.9% | -3.8% |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 40.0% | 35.9% | -4.1% |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 45.5% | 35.9% | -9.6% |
Over 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +7.9% | 1.50 | 66.7% | 64.1% | -2.6% |
| Marathonbet | 1.41 | 70.9% | 64.1% | -6.8% |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 75.2% | 64.1% | -11.1% |
| Unibet | 1.32 | 75.8% | 64.1% | -11.7% |
No BTTS | MarathonbetBest price +4.3% | 2.53 | 39.5% | 36.6% | -2.9% |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 40.0% | 36.6% | -3.4% |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 44.4% | 36.6% | -7.8% |
Yes BTTS | MarathonbetBest price +2.7% | 1.42 | 70.4% | 63.4% | -7.0% |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 71.4% | 63.4% | -8.0% |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 75.2% | 63.4% | -11.8% |
Draw or Away Double Chance | Bet365Best price +5.2% | 1.91 | 52.4% | 0.0% | -52.4% |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 54.1% | 0.0% | -54.1% |
| Betfair | 1.83 | 54.6% | 0.0% | -54.6% |
| Marathonbet | 1.81 | 55.2% | 0.0% | -55.2% |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 57.1% | 0.0% | -57.1% |
| Unibet | 1.74 | 57.5% | 0.0% | -57.5% |
Home or Draw Double Chance | BetVictorBest price +2.9% | 1.29 | 77.5% | 0.0% | -77.5% |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 78.1% | 0.0% | -78.1% |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0% |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0% |
| Unibet | 1.23 | 81.3% | 0.0% | -81.3% |
| Marathonbet | 1.22 | 82.0% | 0.0% | -82.0% |
Home or Away Double Chance | William HillBest price +5.8% | 1.25 | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0% |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0% |
| Marathonbet | 1.18 | 84.7% | 0.0% | -84.7% |
| Bet365 | 1.17 | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5% |
| Unibet | 1.17 | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5% |
| BetVictor | 1.07 | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5% |
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.