Maringá vs Amazonas

Maringá at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Amazonas, with 6 wins in 15 matches compared to Amazonas’ 6 wins in 15. Maringá also has a better goal profile, scoring 28 and conceding 25, while Amazonas scores 15 and concedes 20, which suggests Maringá may create more scoring opportunities. The recent form leans toward Maringá as well. Maringá’s last five results are DDWWD, while Amazonas’ are DLLLW, indicating Amazonas has struggled to turn matches into points recently and has been less consistent in performance. On match dynamics, the probabilities point to a relatively open game. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 55.1%, and both teams to score at 56.5%, which fits with Maringá’s ability to find goals at home and Amazonas’ tendency to concede despite having some clean sheets. Given the close margins in the win probabilities (54.9% home win vs 21.3% away win and 23.8% draw), the home win case looks reasonable but not guaranteed, so the medium risk reflects the possibility of a draw or a lower-scoring outcome than expected.