Marília vs Bandeirante SP

Marília at home has struggled in results so far, with 1 win and 2 losses across 3 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Still, they have managed 1 clean sheet, and their recent form shows a win followed by two losses (WLL), which suggests some inconsistency rather than a complete lack of competitiveness. Bandeirante SP’s away record is slightly steadier, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 3 and conceding 2. They also have 1 clean sheet, and their recent form is DLW, indicating they can be difficult to break down, even if they don’t always control outcomes. The draw is relatively plausible here, with both teams’ win probabilities tied at 47.6% for Marília and 26.2% each for draw and away win. The goal profile leans toward a match with limited scoring risk: over 2.5 goals is just under even at 47.8%, while both teams to score is more likely at 52.8%, pointing to a game where one side may score but a tight contest remains possible. Overall, the home win call is supported more by the home-side edge in the win probability than by dominance in scoring or defense. With a high risk level and only moderate confidence (57), it looks like Marília can edge it, but the match outcome is far from secure.