Manchester City vs Inter

Manchester City have started their 2025 run with a strong defensive output, scoring 3 goals and conceding 0 across 1 match, including a clean sheet. Inter have been more open in terms of totals, with 7 goals scored and 3 conceded across 3 matches, though they also have 1 clean sheet. The goal environment looks mixed: Inter’s scoring suggests they can contribute, but their conceded 3 in 3 matches indicates they are not completely shutting out opponents either. With City showing a perfect defensive start, the matchup leans toward fewer goals than a typical high-scoring profile, even if Inter’s attack keeps the game from looking locked down. Both teams to score is slightly more likely than not at 52.3%, which is a reason the under is not “safe.” Still, the over 2.5 goals probability is 46.5%, supporting the idea that the game may stay within a 0–2 or 1–2 type range more often than it turns into a multi-goal shootout. Given the relatively small sample sizes (City 1 match, Inter 3 matches) and the modest edge toward under 2.5, the under 2.5 goals call fits, but with high risk and limited confidence.