Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid

Manchester City at home have started their 2025 run with a win and a clean sheet, scoring 3 and conceding 0 across their single match. That early defensive record supports the idea that they can avoid conceding, which aligns with a home-leaning outcome. Atletico Madrid’s away record in this sample is mixed, with 1 win and 1 loss from two matches, scoring 2 and conceding 1 overall. Their clean sheet count is 1, but their recent form shown as LW suggests they can be competitive while also being capable of dropping points. The overall win probabilities lean toward Manchester City, with home win at 47.6% versus draw at 27.8% and away win at 24.6%. However, the confidence is relatively low (38) and the draw probability is still substantial, so the match could remain tight rather than decisively one-sided. On goals, both teams to score is slightly favored at 47.7%, while over 2.5 goals is at 41.8%, indicating a moderate chance of a higher-scoring game but not a strong edge. This supports a home win lean, but with a higher risk that the result could be closer or swing toward a draw.