Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF

Malmo FF at home have a stronger overall record than Degerfors IF on the road, with Malmo 7W 2D 6L versus Degerfors 2W 4D 9L. Malmo also have the better goal profile, scoring 30 and conceding 25 at home, while Degerfors score 12 and concede 26 away, suggesting Malmo should create more scoring chances. The recent form supports this direction: Malmo’s last five results are WWDLW, while Degerfors have struggled with LLLLL. That contrast in form aligns with the home win lean, though Degerfors’ draws mean the match isn’t guaranteed to be one-sided. There’s also a moderate-to-strong case for goals. Malmo’s home scoring output (30 in 15) and Degerfors’ away concession rate (26 in 15) fit the probabilities for over 2.5 goals (59.4%) and both teams to score (56.5%), indicating a reasonable chance of an open game. Overall, the home win projection (65.2% home win) looks more likely than a draw (20.0%) or away win (14.8%), with medium risk because Degerfors can still keep matches close at times despite poor form.