Lyngby vs Aarhus
Sat, Aug 1, 04:00 PMLyngby Stadion
Model verdict
High risk
Away Win
Lyngby (L) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.7 for Aarhus (DDWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 36/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
36/100
Confidence
36/100
Head-to-Head
Aarhus 2-1 Lyngby
2024-11-03T16:00:00+01:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Lyngby 0-0 Aarhus
2024-09-22T16:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Lyngby 0-2 Aarhus
2023-10-22T14:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Aarhus 1-0 Lyngby
2023-08-27T14:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Lyngby 0-1 Aarhus
2022-10-30T14:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Aarhus 1-0 Lyngby
2022-08-15T19:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Model reasoning
Aarhus looks more likely to win the match, with the away win probability at 54.5% versus 23.1% for Lyngby and 22.4% for a draw. Aarhus’s season record is strong (19W-10D-3L) compared with Lyngby’s limited sample so far (0W-0D-1L).
In goal terms, Aarhus has been more effective and more defensively solid, scoring 62 and conceding 32 across 32 matches, with 9 clean sheets. Lyngby has scored 2 and conceded 3 in their single match, with no clean sheets yet, which suggests less stability at both ends so far.
The market lean also points toward goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55.3% and both teams to score at 58.2%. That combination fits a scenario where Aarhus’s edge in results translates into scoring, while Lyngby still has a reasonable chance to contribute given the both-teams-to-score probability.
Confidence is relatively low (36) and risk is high, mainly because Lyngby’s data is based on just one match, making their true level harder to gauge.
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Fri, 31 Jul 2026 19:49 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
