Leagues Cup
Finished
High risk

Los Angeles FC vs Club Queretaro

11Full time
Thu, Aug 13, 02:30 AMBMO Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 35/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Los Angeles FC (LWW) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 0.9 for Club Queretaro (LLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence
35/100

Strongest cover

1X

84.8% probability

Risk classification

High

21.7% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

LAF win63.1%
Draw21.7%
CQ win15.2%

Goals

Over 1.573.6%
Over 2.547.8%
Under 2.552.2%

Both teams to score

Yes49%
No51%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Los Angeles FC

6/9 recent form points

LWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.67
Shots on target
Unavailable

Club Queretaro

0/9 recent form points

LLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.33
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
No H2H · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Los Angeles FC have the stronger results in their three matches, going 2W 0D 1L with 5 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their recent form is LWW, which suggests they can produce results even if they are not consistently dominant. Club Queretaro have struggled across their three matches, with 0W 0D 3L, only 1 goal scored, and 6 conceded. They also have no clean sheets, and their recent form is LLL, indicating limited attacking output and difficulty keeping games close. The matchup leans toward Los Angeles FC for a home win, reflected in the probabilities (63.1% home win versus 15.2% away win). However, the confidence is not high, since the overall goal indicators are mixed, with over 2.5 goals at 47.8% and both teams to score at 49.0%, implying the game could be relatively tight or not fully one-sided. Given Queretaro’s low scoring and Los Angeles FC’s better record, a home win is the most likely outcome, but the high risk level fits the near-even goal expectations rather than a clear, high-scoring mismatch.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 63.1% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.2106 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Thu, 13 Aug 2026 02:15 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Los Angeles FC predictions · Club Queretaro predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.