Finished

High risk

Value +23.6%

Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Probiy Horodenka

1–3Full time

Fri, Aug 21, 11:00 AM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 36/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Lokomotiv Kyiv (WWWL) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1 for Probiy Horodenka (L). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 36/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped. The strongest fair-price edge is Draw or Away at 23.6 percentage points.

Confidence

36/100

Confidence

36/100

Strongest cover

77.6% probability

Risk classification

High

26.0% draw weight

Value status

Draw or Away

+23.6 pp vs market

Market sample

6 sources

51 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

LK win51.6%

Draw26%

PH win22.4%

Goals

Over 1.574.9%

Over 2.549.1%

Under 2.550.9%

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%

No48.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Lokomotiv Kyiv

9/12 recent form points

WWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.25
Shots on target: Unavailable

Probiy Horodenka

0/3 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Double Chance · Betfair

Draw or Away

Model edge

+23.6 pp

Model: 48.4%
Market fair: 24.8%
Price: 2.30

The model assigns this outcome a higher chance than the margin-adjusted market view. Its model-fair price is 2.07 versus 2.30 offered. That is a disagreement with the market, not a promise of profit.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 21, 10:39 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Lokomotiv Kyiv 1-3 Probiy Horodenka

2026-08-21T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	BetfairBest price +40.1%	5.50	18.2%	22.4%	+4.2%
	1xBet	3.78	26.5%	22.4%	-4.1%
	Pinnacle	3.64	27.5%	22.4%	-5.1%
	William Hill	3.60	27.8%	22.4%	-5.4%
	Marathonbet	3.54	28.2%	22.4%	-5.8%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	22.4%	-6.2%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +7.0%	3.60	27.8%	26.0%	-1.8%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	26.0%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	3.44	29.1%	26.0%	-3.1%
	1xBet	3.25	30.8%	26.0%	-4.8%
	William Hill	3.20	31.3%	26.0%	-5.3%
	Pinnacle	3.19	31.3%	26.0%	-5.3%
Home 1X2	William HillBest price +4.5%	1.91	52.4%	51.6%	-0.8%
	Pinnacle	1.91	52.4%	51.6%	-0.8%
	1xBet	1.89	52.9%	51.6%	-1.3%
	Marathonbet	1.86	53.8%	51.6%	-2.2%
	Bet365	1.85	54.1%	51.6%	-2.5%
	Betfair	1.55	64.5%	51.6%	-12.9%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.7%	1.95	51.3%	49.1%	-2.2%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	49.1%	-2.2%
	Pinnacle	1.89	52.9%	49.1%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	1.85	54.1%	49.1%	-5.0%
	1xBet	1.85	54.1%	49.1%	-5.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.1%	1.85	54.1%	50.9%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	1.85	54.1%	50.9%	-3.2%
	Pinnacle	1.85	54.1%	50.9%	-3.2%
	1xBet	1.85	54.1%	50.9%	-3.2%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	50.9%	-6.2%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +5.7%	2.03	49.3%	48.3%	-1.0%
	William Hill	1.95	51.3%	48.3%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	1.95	51.3%	48.3%	-3.0%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	48.3%	-8.8%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +8.8%	1.95	51.3%	51.7%	+0.4%
	William Hill	1.75	57.1%	51.7%	-5.4%
	1xBet	1.75	57.1%	51.7%	-5.4%
	Marathonbet	1.72	58.1%	51.7%	-6.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +22.3%	2.30	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5%
	William Hill	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	Marathonbet	1.75	57.1%	0.0%	-57.1%
	1xBet	1.75	57.1%	0.0%	-57.1%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.5%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Betfair	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	1xBet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.0%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	1xBet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
	Betfair	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%

Model reasoning

Lokomotiv Kyiv at home have a strong early cup sample, with 3 wins in 4 matches and an even goal record of 5 scored and 5 conceded. They also have 2 clean sheets, and their recent form reads WWWL, suggesting they can control games when they get going. Probiy Horodenka have only played 1 match so far, losing 0-1 with 0 goals scored and 1 conceded. With limited data, their attacking output looks minimal in this snapshot, which makes it harder for them to swing the result away from home. The most likely outcome leans toward Lokomotiv Kyiv, with home win probability at 51.6% versus 22.4% for an away win and 26.0% for a draw. However, the draw probability is still meaningful, and the overall confidence is low-to-moderate (confidence score 36, risk level high), so the home win case isn’t fully secure. On goals, both teams to score is slightly favored (51.7%), and over 2.5 goals is just under a coin flip (49.1%). That combination fits a scenario where Lokomotiv Kyiv may edge it, but the match could still produce a relatively open or at least not fully one-sided scoreline.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-3

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 51.5% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.4298 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:01 UTC, before kickoff at 1.91 (William Hill), by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Lokomotiv Kyiv predictions · Probiy Horodenka predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.