Lochin (WWLLD) project at 2 expected goals versus 0.9 for Qiziriq (LLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 76/100 confidence with medium risk. The strongest fair-price edge is Home or Draw at 49.1 percentage points.
Confidence
76/100
Qiziriq 0-2 Lochin
2026-04-06T13:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Away 1X2 | MarathonbetBest price +30.1% | 19.25 | 5.2% | 5.5% | +0.3% |
| 1xBet | 19.00 | 5.3% |
This forecast was recorded on Sun, 09 Aug 2026 22:18 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
AI prediction
Home Win
Confidence 76/100
Strongest cover
1X
94.5% probability
Risk classification
Medium
11.2% draw weight
Value status
Home or Draw
+49.1 pp vs market
Market sample
6 sources
54 price observations
Full distribution
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Lochin
7/15 recent form points
Qiziriq
0/15 recent form points
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/1 and Over 2.5 in 0/1.
Price interpretation
Double Chance · Superbet
Home or Draw
Model edge
+49.1 pp
The model assigns this outcome a higher chance than the margin-adjusted market view. Its model-fair price is 1.06 versus 1.12 offered. That is a disagreement with the market, not a promise of profit.
Provenance
| 5.5% |
| +0.2% |
| Superbet | 14.00 | 7.1% | 5.5% | -1.6% |
| Bet365 | 13.00 | 7.7% | 5.5% | -2.2% |
| Betano | 13.00 | 7.7% | 5.5% | -2.2% |
| Betfair | 10.50 | 9.5% | 5.5% | -4.0% |
Draw 1X2 | Bet365Best price +9.8% | 8.00 | 12.5% | 11.2% | -1.3% |
| Marathonbet | 7.40 | 13.5% | 11.2% | -2.3% |
| 1xBet | 7.40 | 13.5% | 11.2% | -2.3% |
| Superbet | 7.10 | 14.1% | 11.2% | -2.9% |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 14.3% | 11.2% | -3.1% |
| Betano | 6.80 | 14.7% | 11.2% | -3.5% |
Home 1X2 | BetfairBest price +2.7% | 1.14 | 87.7% | 83.3% | -4.4% |
| Betano | 1.13 | 88.5% | 83.3% | -5.2% |
| Bet365 | 1.12 | 89.3% | 83.3% | -6.0% |
| Superbet | 1.11 | 90.1% | 83.3% | -6.8% |
| Marathonbet | 1.08 | 92.6% | 83.3% | -9.3% |
| 1xBet | 1.08 | 92.6% | 83.3% | -9.3% |
Under 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +6.3% | 3.25 | 30.8% | 30.6% | -0.2% |
| Superbet | 3.10 | 32.3% | 30.6% | -1.7% |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 33.3% | 30.6% | -2.7% |
| Marathonbet | 2.97 | 33.7% | 30.6% | -3.1% |
| 1xBet | 2.97 | 33.7% | 30.6% | -3.1% |
Over 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +1.7% | 1.33 | 75.2% | 69.4% | -5.8% |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 75.2% | 69.4% | -5.8% |
| Marathonbet | 1.30 | 76.9% | 69.4% | -7.5% |
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 76.9% | 69.4% | -7.5% |
| Superbet | 1.28 | 78.1% | 69.4% | -8.7% |
Yes BTTS | MarathonbetBest price +3.7% | 2.11 | 47.4% | 45.5% | -1.9% |
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 47.4% | 45.5% | -1.9% |
| Superbet | 1.97 | 50.8% | 45.5% | -5.3% |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 51.3% | 45.5% | -5.8% |
No BTTS | BetfairBest price +4.3% | 1.75 | 57.1% | 54.5% | -2.6% |
| Superbet | 1.74 | 57.5% | 54.5% | -3.0% |
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 61.7% | 54.5% | -7.2% |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 62.5% | 54.5% | -8.0% |
Draw or Away Double Chance | Bet365Best price +10.6% | 5.50 | 18.2% | 0.0% | -18.2% |
| Marathonbet | 5.35 | 18.7% | 0.0% | -18.7% |
| 1xBet | 5.35 | 18.7% | 0.0% | -18.7% |
| Betano | 4.65 | 21.5% | 0.0% | -21.5% |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 22.2% | 0.0% | -22.2% |
| Superbet | 4.50 | 22.2% | 0.0% | -22.2% |
Home or Draw Double Chance | SuperbetBest price +7.5% | 1.12 | 89.3% | 0.0% | -89.3% |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 96.2% | 0.0% | -96.2% |
| Marathonbet | 1.03 | 97.1% | 0.0% | -97.1% |
| Betano | 1.03 | 97.1% | 0.0% | -97.1% |
| 1xBet | 1.02 | 98.0% | 0.0% | -98.0% |
| Bet365 | 1.01 | 99.0% | 0.0% | -99.0% |
Home or Away Double Chance | BetfairBest price +2.1% | 1.07 | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5% |
| Betano | 1.07 | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5% |
| Bet365 | 1.06 | 94.3% | 0.0% | -94.3% |
| Superbet | 1.05 | 95.2% | 0.0% | -95.2% |
| Marathonbet | 1.02 | 98.0% | 0.0% | -98.0% |
| 1xBet | 1.02 | 98.0% | 0.0% | -98.0% |
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.