Llaneros vs Fortaleza FC

Llaneros at home have been relatively tight, with 19 goals scored and 21 conceded across 21 matches, plus 7 clean sheets. Their recent form includes a mix of results (LDLWD), suggesting they can avoid heavy defeats but may not consistently dominate. Fortaleza away have scored 23 and conceded 28 in 21 matches, with only 4 clean sheets. Their recent run (LLWDD) points to some scoring inconsistency, and the higher concession total compared with Llaneros supports the idea that games may not open up too much. The goal profile aligns with the under angle: the match has a 41.2% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 47.0% probability of both teams to score, which implies a meaningful chance of one side failing to find the net. With home win odds at 47.5% and away win at 24.4%, a lower-scoring home-leaning game is plausible, though not guaranteed. Overall, the under 2.5 goals call fits the season totals and the probabilities provided, with medium risk because both teams have enough scoring ability to still produce a higher-scoring outcome.