Leyton Orient vs Oxford United
2–0Full timeSat, Aug 8, 02:00 PMBrisbane Road
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk
Home Win
Leyton Orient (L) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.2 for Oxford United (WL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
35/100
Confidence
35/100
Head-to-Head
Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Leyton Orient at home have started their 2025 season with one match, scoring 0 and conceding 1, so they’re not showing much attacking output yet. Their record is 0W 0D 1L, which keeps the home win case from looking strong.
Oxford United’s away record is 1W 0D 1L across two matches, with 1 goal scored and 6 conceded. They’ve also kept one clean sheet, and their recent form is better than Orient’s, which supports the away win and draw outcomes.
The home win is still the lean, with 40.2% versus 33.9% for Oxford and 25.9% for a draw, but the confidence is relatively low (35) and the risk is high. The goal markets look more favorable than the result market, with 49.6% for over 2.5 goals and 54.0% for both teams to score, suggesting a fairly open game is possible even if the exact winner is uncertain.
Recorded forecast
Final score
2-0
Pre-kickoff call
Home Win · 40.2% → Won
Ranked probability score
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
