Esiliiga B
Pre-match
Medium risk

Levadia U19 vs Narva U21

Wed, Aug 19, 04:00 PM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 65/100

Model verdict
Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Levadia U19 (WLWWW) project at 2 expected goals versus 1.7 for Narva U21 (LWWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 65/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

65/100

Confidence
65/100

Strongest cover

12

78.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

21.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

45 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

LU win31.3%
Draw21.4%
NU win47.3%

Goals

Over 1.588.8%
Over 2.574.4%
Under 2.525.6%

Both teams to score

Yes73.1%
No26.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Levadia U19

12/15 recent form points

WLWWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.52
Shots on target
Unavailable

Narva U21

12/15 recent form points

LWWWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.59
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 2/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 19, 08:20 AM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Narva U21 4-4 Levadia U19

2026-05-10T11:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Levadia U19 0-4 Narva U21

2026-04-12T11:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Draw
1X2
Bet365Best price +7.2%4.3323.1%21.4%-1.7%
William Hill4.0025.0%21.4%-3.6%
Marathonbet4.0025.0%21.4%-3.6%
Unibet4.0025.0%21.4%-3.6%
Betfair4.0025.0%21.4%-3.6%
10Bet3.9025.6%21.4%-4.2%
Home
1X2
UnibetBest price +21.9%3.5528.2%31.3%+3.1%
Marathonbet2.8834.7%31.3%-3.4%
Betfair2.8035.7%31.3%-4.4%
10Bet2.7536.4%31.3%-5.1%
William Hill2.7536.4%31.3%-5.1%
Bet3652.7536.4%31.3%-5.1%
Away
1X2
10BetBest price +4.9%2.0050.0%47.3%-2.7%
William Hill1.9551.3%47.3%-4.0%
Betfair1.9551.3%47.3%-4.0%
Marathonbet1.9451.5%47.3%-4.2%
Bet3651.9052.6%47.3%-5.3%
Unibet1.7058.8%47.3%-11.5%
Under 2.5
Totals
BetfairBest price +5.0%3.8026.3%25.6%-0.7%
Bet3653.7526.7%25.6%-1.1%
Unibet3.5028.6%25.6%-3.0%
Marathonbet3.4229.2%25.6%-3.6%
Over 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +1.6%1.2580.0%74.4%-5.6%
Marathonbet1.2381.3%74.4%-6.9%
Unibet1.2282.0%74.4%-7.6%
Betfair1.2282.0%74.4%-7.6%
No
BTTS
BetfairBest price +4.7%3.6027.8%26.9%-0.9%
Marathonbet3.2830.5%26.9%-3.6%
Yes
BTTS
MarathonbetBest price +0.4%1.2679.4%73.1%-6.3%
Betfair1.2580.0%73.1%-6.9%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
UnibetBest price +7.0%1.8753.5%0.0%-53.5%
10Bet1.7357.8%0.0%-57.8%
Bet3651.7357.8%0.0%-57.8%
Betfair1.7357.8%0.0%-57.8%
Marathonbet1.6859.5%0.0%-59.5%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
10BetBest price +5.7%1.4071.4%0.0%-71.4%
Bet3651.3673.5%0.0%-73.5%
Betfair1.3673.5%0.0%-73.5%
Marathonbet1.3176.3%0.0%-76.3%
Unibet1.1984.0%0.0%-84.0%
Home or Away
Double Chance
BetfairBest price +3.4%1.2083.3%0.0%-83.3%
Marathonbet1.1686.2%0.0%-86.2%
10Bet1.1587.0%0.0%-87.0%
Unibet1.1587.0%0.0%-87.0%
Bet3651.1487.7%0.0%-87.7%

Model reasoning

Narva U21 look slightly stronger in results and defense, with 47.3% away win probability and only 30 goals conceded in 22 matches, plus 7 clean sheets. Levadia U19 have a solid scoring record at home, with 58 goals in 23 matches, but they also concede 42 overall, which keeps the game open. The goal profile supports a higher-scoring script. Both teams have similar scoring output (58 vs 57 goals), while Narva’s defense is better than Levadia’s (30 conceded vs 42), suggesting Narva can limit damage but may still allow chances given Levadia’s goal volume. The over 2.5 goals call aligns with the provided probabilities: 74.4% for over 2.5 goals and 73.1% for both teams to score. With Levadia’s recent form reading WLWWW and Narva’s LWWWW, the recent trend also points toward goals rather than a low-scoring stalemate. Confidence is moderate rather than high, reflected by the 65 confidence score and medium risk level. Even with Narva’s stronger defense, the combination of both teams’ scoring rates and the high both-teams-to-score probability makes over 2.5 the more consistent fit.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 19 Aug 2026 13:09 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Levadia U19 predictions · Narva U21 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.