Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin

Legia Warszawa at home have a slightly stronger overall profile than Zaglebie Lubin, with 12 wins versus 13 away wins across their 34 matches, and a marginally better goal difference (42 scored, 37 conceded for Legia versus 45 scored, 38 conceded for Zaglebie). Legia’s recent run is also more favorable, with form reading LWWWW, while Zaglebie’s is LDWLL, suggesting Legia has been more consistent in the latest games. For match outcome, the probabilities are close, with Legia at 49.7% for a home win, compared with 26.7% for a draw and 23.6% for an away win. That gap supports a home-leaning view, but the relatively high draw likelihood keeps the result from looking secure. On goals, the model gives 44.7% for over 2.5 goals, which is below a coin-flip level, and 49.7% for both teams to score. With both sides having similar defensive outputs (37 conceded for Legia, 38 for Zaglebie) and identical clean sheet counts (11 each), a tight, low-to-mid scoring game is plausible, even if Legia’s current form tilts the balance. Overall, a home win is a reasonable lean, but with only moderate separation between outcomes and a high risk level, it’s better treated as a tentative pick rather than a confident call.