Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań
Fri, Jul 31, 06:30 PMPolsat Plus Arena
Model verdict
Medium risk
BTTS Yes
Lechia Gdansk (L) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.4 for Warta Poznań (L). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 60/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
60/100
Confidence
60/100
Head-to-Head
Warta Poznań 2-0 Lechia Gdansk
2023-03-19T12:30:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Lechia Gdansk 0-0 Warta Poznań
2022-09-03T17:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Lechia Gdansk 2-0 Warta Poznań
2022-04-23T20:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Warta Poznań 0-2 Lechia Gdansk
2021-10-30T15:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Warta Poznań
2021-02-05T18:00:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Warta Poznań 0-1 Lechia Gdansk
2020-08-23T15:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Model reasoning
Lechia Gdansk at home have started with a loss, scoring 0 and conceding 3 in their only match. Warta Poznań away also started with a loss, scoring 3 and conceding 4 in their only match, which suggests both sides have been involved in goals rather than keeping things tight.
The overall probabilities point toward both teams scoring, with both teams to score at 59.7%. That aligns with Lechia conceding 3 and Warta scoring 3, even though neither side has a clean sheet so far.
There is also a moderate lean toward a higher-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals at 56.3%. With the home win probability at 43.1% and the away win at 31.2%, the draw at 25.7% keeps the match outcome less certain, but the goal involvement supports BTTS Yes.
Given the limited sample size of one match each, the confidence is only medium (60) and the bet carries some risk, but the provided scoring indicators favor both teams finding the net.
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Fri, 31 Jul 2026 18:07 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
