LD Alajuelense vs Xelajú
1–0Full timeThu, Jul 30, 02:00 AMEstadio Alejandro Morera Soto
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk
Home Win
LD Alajuelense (WDWDW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.1 for Xelajú (LDWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 44/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
44/100
Confidence
44/100
Head-to-Head
Xelajú 1-1 LD Alajuelense
2025-12-04T03:00:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
LD Alajuelense 1-1 Xelajú
2025-11-27T03:00:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
AI Reasoning
Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for LD Alajuelense vs Xelajú.
Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped.
Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed.
Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
Recorded forecast
Final score
1-0
Pre-kickoff call
Home Win · 45.7% → Won
Ranked probability score
0.1831 (uniform ≈ 0.222)
Recorded Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:58 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.5. Counted in the public track record.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
