Lazio vs Avellino
Sat, Aug 1, 07:30 AM
AI prediction
Under 2.5 Goals
Confidence 42/100
Model verdict
High risk
Under 2.5 Goals
Lazio (WLDW) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1 for Avellino (LW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 42/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
42/100
Confidence
42/100
Head-to-Head
Avellino 0-1 Lazio
2025-07-26T20:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Lazio at home have been relatively tight in this small sample, scoring 4 and conceding 3 across 4 matches, with 2 clean sheets. Their recent form includes two wins, one draw, and one loss, and the goal totals suggest games are not consistently high-scoring.
Avellino’s away record is limited to 2 matches, but they’ve scored 3 and conceded 2, with no clean sheets. Their recent form is stronger than Lazio’s in terms of results (1W and 1L), yet the overall scoring and concession numbers remain modest.
With Lazio’s low home goal output and Avellino’s limited away sample, the match profile leans toward fewer goals. The probabilities also reflect this, with under 2.5 goals implied by over 2.5 goals at 40.7%, and both teams to score at 47.2% indicating it’s not a clear “both score” situation.
Given the small number of matches for both sides and the fairly close win/draw/lose split, the under 2.5 call looks plausible but not strongly supported, aligning with the high risk and a confidence score of 42.
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Fri, 31 Jul 2026 21:09 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.