Pre-match

Medium risk

Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon

Mon, Aug 3, 02:30 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Kokand-1912 (LWLLL) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.2 for Surkhon (LDWLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 73/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

73/100

Confidence

73/100

Head-to-Head

Kokand-1912 2-0 Surkhon

2025-08-17T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Surkhon 3-1 Kokand-1912

2025-04-04T17:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Surkhon 4-0 Kokand-1912

2023-06-02T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Kokand-1912 2-3 Surkhon

2022-10-03T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Surkhon 1-0 Kokand-1912

2022-05-06T15:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kokand-1912 2-0 Surkhon

2021-08-25T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Model reasoning

Kokand-1912 at home have struggled overall, with 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses from 14 matches, and they’ve scored 13 while conceding 23. Their recent form is also weak, showing LWLLL in the latest stretch, which limits how strongly they can be backed despite the home setting. Surkhon away are slightly better in results, with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, and they’ve scored 14 and conceded 22 across 14 matches. Their recent form is mixed to poor as well (LDWLL), so they don’t look consistently strong on the road either. The home-win lean is mainly reflected in the matchup probabilities you provided, where Kokand-1912 are rated 46.4% for a win versus 25.5% for Surkhon, with draws at 28.1%. Still, the overall records and recent form suggest the margin is not large, so a draw or an away upset remains plausible. For goals, the probabilities point to a fairly even chance of a low-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals at 44.6% and both teams to score at 50.0%. That combination supports a medium-risk home-win view rather than a confident one.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:02 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Kokand-1912

3/15 recent form points

LWLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.93
Shots on target: Unavailable

Surkhon

4/15 recent form points

LDWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	10BetBest price +1.1%	3.50	28.6%	25.5%	-3.1%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	25.5%	-3.1%
	BetVictor	3.50	28.6%	25.5%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	3.48	28.7%	25.5%	-3.2%
	William Hill	3.40	29.4%	25.5%	-3.9%
	Betfair	3.40	29.4%	25.5%	-3.9%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +3.3%	3.25	30.8%	28.1%	-2.7%
	Bet365	3.20	31.3%	28.1%	-3.1%
	BetVictor	3.20	31.3%	28.1%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	3.12	32.1%	28.1%	-4.0%
	10Bet	3.10	32.3%	28.1%	-4.2%
	William Hill	3.00	33.3%	28.1%	-5.2%
Home 1X2	William HillBest price +1.0%	2.00	50.0%	46.4%	-3.6%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	46.4%	-3.6%
	BetVictor	2.00	50.0%	46.4%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	1.98	50.5%	46.4%	-4.1%
	10Bet	1.95	51.3%	46.4%	-4.9%
	Bet365	1.95	51.3%	46.4%	-4.9%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.2%	2.10	47.6%	44.6%	-3.0%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	44.6%	-3.0%
	BetVictor	2.10	47.6%	44.6%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.08	48.1%	44.6%	-3.5%
	10Bet	2.00	50.0%	44.6%	-5.4%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.4%	1.70	58.8%	55.4%	-3.4%
	10Bet	1.65	60.6%	55.4%	-5.2%
	Marathonbet	1.65	60.6%	55.4%	-5.2%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	55.4%	-5.2%
	BetVictor	1.65	60.6%	55.4%	-5.2%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.1%	1.87	53.5%	50.0%	-3.5%
	William Hill	1.85	54.1%	50.0%	-4.1%
	BetVictor	1.85	54.1%	50.0%	-4.1%
	Marathonbet	1.83	54.6%	50.0%	-4.6%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.9%	1.87	53.5%	50.0%	-3.5%
	William Hill	1.83	54.6%	50.0%	-4.6%
	BetVictor	1.83	54.6%	50.0%	-4.6%
	Marathonbet	1.81	55.2%	50.0%	-5.2%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +4.8%	1.77	56.5%	0.0%	-56.5%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	0.0%	-58.8%
	William Hill	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Betfair	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	BetVictor	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Marathonbet	1.65	60.6%	0.0%	-60.6%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.7%	1.35	74.1%	0.0%	-74.1%
	BetVictor	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Betfair	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Marathonbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	10Bet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +1.5%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	BetVictor	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	10Bet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%

Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon

Home Win

Head-to-Head

Model reasoning

Recorded forecast

Market probabilities

Evidence ledger

Matchup xG signal

Value read

Model card

Odds Comparison