Pre-match

Medium risk

Kári vs Fjolnir

Sun, Aug 23, 12:30 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 68/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Kári (WDDWD) project at 2.5 expected goals versus 1.5 for Fjolnir (WDWLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 68/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

68/100

Confidence

68/100

Strongest cover

79.1% probability

Risk classification

Medium

20.9% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

42 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

K win45%

Draw20.9%

F win34.1%

Goals

Over 1.591.2%

Over 2.576.1%

Under 2.523.9%

Both teams to score

Yes77.8%

No22.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Kári

9/15 recent form points

WDDWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.61
Shots on target: Unavailable

Fjolnir

7/15 recent form points

WDWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.39
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 23, 09:02 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Fjolnir 2-2 Kári

2026-06-15T21:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +5.1%	4.33	23.1%	20.9%	-2.2%
	BetVictor	4.33	23.1%	20.9%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	4.20	23.8%	20.9%	-2.9%
	10Bet	4.10	24.4%	20.9%	-3.5%
	Unibet	3.95	25.3%	20.9%	-4.4%
	William Hill	3.80	26.3%	20.9%	-5.4%
Away 1X2	BetVictorBest price +2.0%	2.63	38.0%	34.1%	-3.9%
	William Hill	2.62	38.2%	34.1%	-4.1%
	10Bet	2.60	38.5%	34.1%	-4.4%
	Betfair	2.60	38.5%	34.1%	-4.4%
	Marathonbet	2.59	38.6%	34.1%	-4.5%
	Unibet	2.43	41.2%	34.1%	-7.1%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +3.6%	2.15	46.5%	45.0%	-1.5%
	BetVictor	2.10	47.6%	45.0%	-2.6%
	10Bet	2.05	48.8%	45.0%	-3.8%
	William Hill	2.05	48.8%	45.0%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	2.05	48.8%	45.0%	-3.8%
	Betfair	2.05	48.8%	45.0%	-3.8%
No BTTS	BetVictorBest price +4.8%	4.40	22.7%	22.2%	-0.5%
	Marathonbet	4.20	23.8%	22.2%	-1.6%
	William Hill	4.00	25.0%	22.2%	-2.8%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +2.0%	1.20	83.3%	77.8%	-5.5%
	BetVictor	1.17	85.5%	77.8%	-7.7%
	Marathonbet	1.16	86.2%	77.8%	-8.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +4.1%	1.70	58.8%	0.0%	-58.8%
	William Hill	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	Betfair	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
	BetVictor	1.65	60.6%	0.0%	-60.6%
	Marathonbet	1.61	62.1%	0.0%	-62.1%
	Unibet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetVictorBest price +2.4%	1.42	70.4%	0.0%	-70.4%
	Unibet	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Betfair	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Marathonbet	1.38	72.5%	0.0%	-72.5%
	10Bet	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	William Hill	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.6%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	BetVictor	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	10Bet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%

Model reasoning

Kári at home have been relatively solid defensively, conceding 29 goals in 18 matches, and they’ve kept 2 clean sheets. Their recent form is mixed but includes multiple draws (WDDWD), which supports the idea that games can stay competitive rather than turning one-sided. Fjolnir away have struggled to keep opponents out, with 0 clean sheets and 40 goals conceded across 18 matches. Their recent run (WDWLL) suggests they can score at times, but they’re also vulnerable, which increases the likelihood that both teams find goals. With Kári scoring 47 and Fjolnir scoring 43 over the season, the matchup profile points toward both teams being able to contribute offensively. The overall goal environment also looks favorable, with over 2.5 goals at 76.1% and both teams to score at 77.8%, so BTTS Yes aligns with the provided probabilities. The draw is still a meaningful outcome (20.9%), and the home win rate is only slightly higher than the away win rate (45.0% vs 34.1%), so while BTTS Yes is the lean, it’s not guaranteed and carries a medium level of risk.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sun, 23 Aug 2026 12:01 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Kári predictions · Fjolnir predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.