Juventude vs Atletico-MG

Juventude at home has been strong in this sample, with 4 wins in 6 matches and a very solid defensive record of 3 conceded goals total and 3 clean sheets. Their recent form includes two wins and only one loss across the last five results, which supports the idea that they can control the game at their ground. Atletico-MG away is less dominant but still competitive, with 4 wins in 8 and 14 goals scored. Their defense has been more vulnerable on the road, conceding 8 in 8 matches, and their recent form shows two losses in the last five, which slightly weakens the case for an away win despite their ability to score. The probabilities lean toward a Juventude home win (56.1%) rather than a draw (24.1%) or an Atletico-MG win (19.8%), but the confidence is moderate and the risk is high, suggesting the matchup could swing if Atletico-MG finds scoring chances. With both teams to score at 52.9% and over 2.5 goals at 50.7%, the game profile looks closer to a relatively open contest than a guaranteed low-scoring shutout. Overall, the home win is the most likely single outcome, but the margins are not large, so it’s reasonable to expect some uncertainty and potential for a draw or a narrow away upset.