Juventud de Bernal vs Atletico Pilar

Juventud de Bernal have struggled defensively, conceding 26 goals in 9 matches with zero clean sheets, and their recent form is consistently poor (LWLLL). That profile suggests they are vulnerable even if they occasionally manage to keep games close. Atletico Pilar’s attack has been modest but they’ve scored 6 in 9, while also conceding 16 and keeping 1 clean sheet. Their recent form is mixed (LLDLL), but the combination of Bernal’s defensive issues and Pilar’s ability to find goals supports a scenario where both teams get on the scoresheet. The probabilities align with this: both teams to score is 54.3%, and over 2.5 goals is 48.9%, indicating a relatively open game but not a strong guarantee of a high-scoring outcome. With Bernal’s heavy losses and Pilar’s limited scoring, the BTTS angle looks more plausible than a clear home or away win. Given the close win probabilities (home 38.7%, draw 27.5%, away 33.8%) and the moderate edge for BTTS, the bet carries high risk and the confidence is only moderate (63).