Junior vs Deportivo Pereira

Junior at home has a stronger overall record than Deportivo Pereira on the road, with Junior going 14W 4D 9L across 27 matches versus Pereira’s 1W 8D 12L across 21 away matches. Junior also has the better goal profile, scoring 40 and conceding 31, while Pereira scores 15 and concedes 33, which supports the home win lean. The recent form also points more toward Junior’s side, with Junior’s sequence reading WWLLL compared with Pereira’s LWLLD. While neither team is in dominant form, Pereira’s away results and low scoring output make it harder for them to consistently threaten Junior’s goal. The market-style probabilities align with this matchup: home win is 63.8% versus 21.9% for a draw and 14.3% for an away win. For goals, over 2.5 is 48.9% and both teams to score is 48.5%, suggesting a fairly even chance of a tighter game rather than a clear high-scoring outcome. With a confidence score of 71 and medium risk, the home win case looks reasonable, but the near-50% goal indicators imply there’s still meaningful uncertainty around how decisive the match will be.