Jaguares vs Once Caldas
0–045′Sun, Aug 9, 11:10 PMEstadio Jaraguay
Model verdict
Medium risk
BTTS Yes
Jaguares (DWLLL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.4 for Once Caldas (LDWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 70/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
70/100
Confidence
70/100
Head-to-Head
Once Caldas 1-1 Jaguares
2026-02-02T00:10:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Once Caldas 2-0 Jaguares
2024-08-26T02:40:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Jaguares 3-0 Once Caldas
2024-02-19T00:10:00+01:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Once Caldas 0-0 Jaguares
2023-10-14T03:10:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Jaguares 1-0 Once Caldas
2023-05-02T00:15:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Once Caldas 0-1 Jaguares
2022-10-01T23:05:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Model reasoning
Once Caldas look slightly more likely to edge the match, with a stronger overall record away (9W 11D 4L) and better goal balance than Jaguares at home. Jaguares have struggled in recent games (DWLLL) and have conceded 39 in 22 matches, which keeps the door open for Once Caldas to score.
The BTTS angle is supported by both sides’ season scoring and defensive profiles. Jaguares have scored 20 in 22 and kept 4 clean sheets, while Once Caldas have scored 40 in 24 and also kept 4 clean sheets, suggesting that even if clean sheets are possible, goals for both teams are still fairly plausible.
With both teams to score at 55.8% and over 2.5 goals at 51.2%, the match profile leans toward a game where at least one team can break through, and there’s a moderate chance that both do. The medium risk fits the fact that Jaguares’ recent form is weak, but their season goal output means they are not completely shut out.
Overall, BTTS Yes is a reasonable lean rather than a lock, aligning with the provided probabilities and the teams’ season goal records.
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Sun, 09 Aug 2026 21:47 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
