Itabirito U20 (WWDLW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.3 for Athletic Club MG U20 (WLLWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 61/100 confidence with medium risk. The strongest fair-price edge is Home or Draw at 29.2 percentage points.
Confidence
61/100
Athletic Club MG U20 0-1 Itabirito U20
2026-06-06T15:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw 1X2 | Bet365Best price +12.0% | 3.50 | 28.6% | 27.9% | -0.7% |
| 10Bet | 3.20 | 31.3% |
This forecast was recorded on Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:47 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
AI prediction
BTTS Yes
Confidence 61/100
Strongest cover
12
72.1% probability
Risk classification
Medium
27.9% draw weight
Value status
Home or Draw
+29.2 pp vs market
Market sample
6 sources
49 price observations
Full distribution
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Itabirito U20
10/15 recent form points
Athletic Club MG U20
6/15 recent form points
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/1 and Over 2.5 in 0/1.
Price interpretation
Double Chance · Bet365
Home or Draw
Model edge
+29.2 pp
The model assigns this outcome a higher chance than the margin-adjusted market view. Its model-fair price is 1.74 versus 1.80 offered. That is a disagreement with the market, not a promise of profit.
Provenance
| 27.9% |
| -3.4% |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 31.7% | 27.9% | -3.8% |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 32.3% | 27.9% | -4.4% |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 34.5% | 27.9% | -6.6% |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 34.5% | 27.9% | -6.6% |
Home 1X2 | Bet365Best price +12.6% | 3.40 | 29.4% | 29.6% | +0.2% |
| Marathonbet | 3.04 | 32.9% | 29.6% | -3.3% |
| 10Bet | 3.00 | 33.3% | 29.6% | -3.7% |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 33.3% | 29.6% | -3.7% |
| Pinnacle | 2.98 | 33.6% | 29.6% | -4.0% |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 37.0% | 29.6% | -7.4% |
Away 1X2 | PinnacleBest price +4.2% | 2.18 | 45.9% | 42.5% | -3.4% |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 46.1% | 42.5% | -3.6% |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 46.5% | 42.5% | -4.0% |
| 10Bet | 2.10 | 47.6% | 42.5% | -5.1% |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 48.8% | 42.5% | -6.3% |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 42.5% | -10.1% |
Over 2.5 Totals | MarathonbetBest price +5.9% | 1.96 | 51.0% | 49.2% | -1.8% |
| Pinnacle | 1.92 | 52.1% | 49.2% | -2.9% |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 54.1% | 49.2% | -4.9% |
| 10Bet | 1.80 | 55.6% | 49.2% | -6.4% |
| BetVictor | 1.72 | 58.1% | 49.2% | -8.9% |
Under 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +9.1% | 1.95 | 51.3% | 50.8% | -0.5% |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.8% | -3.8% |
| 10Bet | 1.80 | 55.6% | 50.8% | -4.8% |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 57.5% | 50.8% | -6.7% |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 61.7% | 50.8% | -10.9% |
No BTTS | William HillBest price +3.7% | 1.95 | 51.3% | 46.9% | -4.4% |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 52.4% | 46.9% | -5.5% |
| BetVictor | 1.78 | 56.2% | 46.9% | -9.3% |
Yes BTTS | MarathonbetBest price +4.2% | 1.74 | 57.5% | 53.1% | -4.4% |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 58.8% | 53.1% | -5.7% |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 63.7% | 53.1% | -10.6% |
Home or Draw Double Chance | Bet365Best price +12.2% | 1.80 | 55.6% | 0.0% | -55.6% |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 62.5% | 0.0% | -62.5% |
| 10Bet | 1.55 | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5% |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 64.9% | 0.0% | -64.9% |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 65.4% | 0.0% | -65.4% |
Draw or Away Double Chance | 10BetBest price +3.7% | 1.35 | 74.1% | 0.0% | -74.1% |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 75.2% | 0.0% | -75.2% |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 76.9% | 0.0% | -76.9% |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 78.1% | 0.0% | -78.1% |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0% |
Home or Away Double Chance | William HillBest price +8.3% | 1.33 | 75.2% | 0.0% | -75.2% |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 78.7% | 0.0% | -78.7% |
| 10Bet | 1.22 | 82.0% | 0.0% | -82.0% |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 82.0% | 0.0% | -82.0% |
| BetVictor | 1.10 | 90.9% | 0.0% | -90.9% |
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.