Ironi Tiberias vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ironi Tiberias at home has struggled recently, with a record of 1W 1D 3L and a recent run of WDLLL. They’ve scored 6 and conceded 7 across 5 matches, with only 1 clean sheet, which suggests their results have been fairly mixed rather than consistently strong. Ironi Kiryat Shmona’s away record is also not dominant, but they’ve been slightly steadier in this sample, going 2W 0D 3L. They’ve scored 4 and conceded 5, also with 1 clean sheet, and their recent form WLLWL indicates they can produce results, though not consistently. The probabilities point to a close contest: home win is 43.8% versus away win at 28.3% and a draw at 27.9%. With both teams to score at 51.2%, a low-to-moderate scoring game is plausible, and over 2.5 goals is only 46.0%, so the home win case looks more like a narrow edge than a clear separation. Given the relatively low home win probability and the high draw/away presence, the home win lean fits the numbers but with limited confidence (46) and a high risk profile.