Independiente vs Newells Old Boys
1–0Full timeFri, Jul 31, 12:15 AMLibertadores de America
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk
Home Win
Independiente (WLWLW) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1 for Newells Old Boys (DWDDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 76/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
76/100
Confidence
76/100
Head-to-Head
Newells Old Boys 1-1 Independiente
2026-01-28T02:15:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Newells Old Boys 2-1 Independiente
2024-11-26T23:00:00+01:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Independiente 0-2 Newells Old Boys
2023-07-12T01:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Independiente 1-0 Newells Old Boys
2022-09-25T01:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Newells Old Boys 1-0 Independiente
2021-10-31T22:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Newells Old Boys 1-2 Independiente
2021-03-05T23:15:00+01:00
AI Reasoning
Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Independiente vs Newells Old Boys.
Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability.
Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed.
Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
Recorded forecast
Final score
1-0
Pre-kickoff call
Home Win · 56.0% → Won
Ranked probability score
0.1164 (uniform ≈ 0.222)
Recorded Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:30 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.5. Counted in the public track record.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
