Finished

Medium risk

Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ result & prediction review

1–0Full time

Mon, Aug 17, 01:30 AMEstadio Olimpico Patria

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 76/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Independiente Petrolero (LWLLL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.1 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ (DDLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 76/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

76/100

Confidence

76/100

Strongest cover

79.5% probability

Risk classification

Medium

23.1% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

IP win56.4%

Draw23.1%

GVS win20.5%

Goals

Over 1.580.1%

Over 2.556.7%

Under 2.543.3%

Both teams to score

Yes57.4%

No42.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Independiente Petrolero

3/15 recent form points

LWLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.35
Shots on target: Unavailable

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2/15 recent form points

DDLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.05
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/5 and Over 2.5 in 2/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Independiente Petrolero 1-0 Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2026-08-17T03:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2-1 Independiente Petrolero

2025-08-10T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Independiente Petrolero 0-2 Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2025-04-06T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Independiente Petrolero 0-1 Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2024-09-28T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2-2 Independiente Petrolero

2024-05-18T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 52.9% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.136 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 15 Aug 2026 19:10 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Independiente Petrolero predictions · Gualberto Villarroel SJ predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.