Finished

Medium risk

Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima result & prediction review

3–1Full time

Wed, Aug 26, 12:30 AMEstadio Banco Guayaquil

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 62/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Independiente del Valle (WWWLD) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 0.9 for Deportes Tolima (WLDLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 62/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

62/100

Confidence

62/100

Strongest cover

81.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

24.9% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

IDV win56.7%

Draw24.9%

DT win18.4%

Goals

Over 1.569.5%

Over 2.542.5%

Under 2.557.5%

Both teams to score

Yes46.6%

No53.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Independiente del Valle

10/15 recent form points

WWWLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.60
Shots on target: Unavailable

Deportes Tolima

4/15 recent form points

WLDLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/4 and Over 2.5 in 2/4.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Independiente del Valle 3-1 Deportes Tolima

2026-08-26T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Deportes Tolima 0-1 Independiente del Valle

2026-08-19T02:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Deportes Tolima 1-0 Independiente del Valle

2022-05-05T04:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Independiente del Valle 2-2 Deportes Tolima

2022-04-14T04:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 56.7% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1103 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:03 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Independiente del Valle predictions · Deportes Tolima predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.