Independiente de La Chorrera vs Deportivo Universitario

Independiente de La Chorrera at home has a stronger overall record than Deportivo Universitario on the road, with 4 wins in 19 matches versus 3 wins in 18. Their goal profile is also slightly better, scoring 22 and conceding 19, while Deportivo Universitario scores 21 but concedes 31 away. The recent form points to a more favorable matchup for the home side. Independiente’s latest run includes a win and several draws/losses (WLLDD), whereas Deportivo Universitario has struggled recently with five straight losses (LLLLL), which supports the home win lean. For goals, the matchup is close to balanced but leans slightly toward a higher-scoring game. Independiente’s season numbers suggest they can contribute offensively (22 scored), while Deportivo’s defense has been vulnerable (31 conceded), making over 2.5 goals and both teams to score both around the coin-flip range. Overall, the home win is the most likely outcome among the provided probabilities (56.8%), but the draw remains plausible (24.3%), so the edge is moderate rather than decisive.