Pre-match

Medium risk

Hwacheon KSPO W vs Incheon Red Angels W

Tue, Aug 11, 10:00 AM

AI prediction

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Hwacheon KSPO W (WDWWD) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 0.7 for Incheon Red Angels W (LLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 75/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

75/100

Confidence

75/100

Head-to-Head

Incheon Red Angels W 0-2 Hwacheon KSPO W

2026-07-31T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Hwacheon KSPO W 2-2 Incheon Red Angels W

2026-04-24T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Incheon Red Angels W 1-3 Hwacheon KSPO W

2025-09-15T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Hwacheon KSPO W 3-1 Incheon Red Angels W

2025-06-19T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Hwacheon KSPO W 3-1 Incheon Red Angels W

2025-05-08T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Incheon Red Angels W 1-0 Hwacheon KSPO W

2025-03-27T11:00:00+01:00

Model reasoning

Hwacheon KSPO W at home look stronger overall, with an 11W 3D 3L record and a strong goal profile of 27 scored and 9 conceded across 17 matches. They also keep games tight, posting 10 clean sheets, which supports the home win lean. Incheon Red Angels W away have struggled more, with only 6W 3D 9L and a weaker scoring and defensive record of 17 scored and 26 conceded. Their recent form is also notably poor, with five straight losses, which reduces confidence in an away turnaround. The matchup also points to a moderate chance of goals, with a 53.9% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 51.0% probability that both teams score. That suggests the home side may be more likely to win, but it’s not a clear-cut high-scoring certainty. Overall, the home win probability is 63.7% (with draw 21.4% and away win 14.9%), aligning with the medium risk level.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 10 Aug 2026 22:14 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Hwacheon KSPO W

11/15 recent form points

WDWWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.59
Shots on target: Unavailable

Incheon Red Angels W

0/15 recent form points

LLLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.94
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 7/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	Bet365Best price +17.4%	6.50	15.4%	14.9%	-0.5%
	Marathonbet	5.55	18.0%	14.9%	-3.1%
	Betfair	5.50	18.2%	14.9%	-3.3%
	Pinnacle	5.48	18.2%	14.9%	-3.3%
	Unibet	5.20	19.2%	14.9%	-4.3%
	William Hill	5.00	20.0%	14.9%	-5.1%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +5.3%	4.20	23.8%	21.4%	-2.4%
	Bet365	4.10	24.4%	21.4%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	4.05	24.7%	21.4%	-3.3%
	Pinnacle	4.03	24.8%	21.4%	-3.4%
	Unibet	3.95	25.3%	21.4%	-3.9%
	William Hill	3.60	27.8%	21.4%	-6.4%
Home 1X2	PinnacleBest price +3.2%	1.51	66.2%	63.7%	-2.5%
	William Hill	1.50	66.7%	63.7%	-3.0%
	Unibet	1.49	67.1%	63.7%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	1.46	68.5%	63.7%	-4.8%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	63.7%	-5.7%
	Bet365	1.38	72.5%	63.7%	-8.8%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.6%	2.10	47.6%	46.1%	-1.5%
	Pinnacle	2.06	48.5%	46.1%	-2.4%
	Marathonbet	2.01	49.8%	46.1%	-3.7%
	Unibet	1.94	51.5%	46.1%	-5.4%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +0.9%	1.72	58.1%	53.9%	-4.2%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	53.9%	-4.9%
	Marathonbet	1.70	58.8%	53.9%	-4.9%
	Unibet	1.70	58.8%	53.9%	-4.9%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +3.4%	1.95	51.3%	49.0%	-2.3%
	Unibet	1.86	53.8%	49.0%	-4.8%
	Marathonbet	1.85	54.1%	49.0%	-5.1%
Yes BTTS	UnibetBest price +1.5%	1.81	55.2%	51.0%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.79	55.9%	51.0%	-4.9%
	William Hill	1.75	57.1%	51.0%	-6.1%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +11.6%	2.63	38.0%	0.0%	-38.0%
	Marathonbet	2.35	42.6%	0.0%	-42.6%
	William Hill	2.30	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5%
	Bet365	2.30	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5%
	Unibet	2.20	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.7%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	Unibet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.0%	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Bet365	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	Betfair	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Unibet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	Marathonbet	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%

Hwacheon KSPO W vs Incheon Red Angels W

Home Win

Head-to-Head

Model reasoning

Recorded forecast

Market probabilities

Evidence ledger

Matchup xG signal

Value read

Model card

Odds Comparison