HNK Rijeka vs Ilves

Rijeka at home have a solid defensive profile in their 10 matches, conceding 6 goals and keeping 5 clean sheets, which supports the idea that they can control the game. Their recent form is mixed but includes two wins in the last five results (DWWLD), suggesting they can produce results even if they are not consistently dominant. Ilves’ away sample is small, with 2 matches showing 1 win and 1 loss, and they have conceded 8 goals while scoring 4. With zero clean sheets in those two away games, they look more vulnerable defensively, which makes a home edge more plausible. The market-style probabilities align with this: Rijeka win is estimated at 59.0% versus 23.8% for a draw and 17.2% for an Ilves win. There is also a near-even chance of both teams scoring (49.6%), and over 2.5 goals is slightly below the midpoint (48.2%), so the matchup could be tighter than a comfortable home win would imply. Given the high risk level and the limited away data for Ilves, the home win case is reasonable but not strongly supported. A draw remains a meaningful alternative, especially if Ilves manage to keep Rijeka from converting their defensive advantage into multiple goals.