HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961

HNK Hajduk Split have the stronger overall record at home, with 20 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses from 36 matches, plus a better goal difference from 61 scored and 36 conceded. Istra 1961’s away record is weaker, with 12 wins and 17 losses, and they’ve scored 39 while conceding 50, suggesting Hajduk should have the edge in territory and chances. The recent form also leans toward Hajduk. Hajduk’s last five results are DWLDW, while Istra’s are LWWDL, which includes two wins but also more losses overall, aligning with Istra’s poorer away outcomes. On goals, the matchup is close, but the indicators slightly favor a higher-scoring game: over 2.5 goals is at 50.5%, and both teams to score is at 50.9%. With Hajduk conceding 36 across the season and Istra scoring 39 away, there’s enough for Istra to potentially contribute, even if Hajduk are more likely to control the result. The home win probability is 60.0% versus 23.2% for a draw and 16.8% for an away win, but the confidence is only 56 with a high risk level, so the result is plausible rather than assured.