Hibernian vs Shkendija

Hibernian at home has a balanced start in this sample, with 8 goals scored and 8 conceded across 4 matches, plus 1 clean sheet. Their recent form is mixed (WLLD), which limits how strongly the home edge can be trusted, but it still supports a slight preference for them to do better than Shkendija. Shkendija’s away record is weaker overall, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, and they’ve scored only 4 goals while conceding 10. Their recent form is also poor (LWLLL), suggesting they may struggle to consistently create or finish chances on the road. The market-style probabilities align with a close match: home win is 49.3% versus draw 27.0% and away win 23.7%. Both teams to score is just under even at 49.8%, and over 2.5 goals is 45.6%, so a low-to-moderate scoring game is plausible, which keeps the home win from looking fully secure. With confidence at 49 and risk marked high, the home win looks like the lean rather than a strong conviction, especially given Hibernian’s mixed recent results and the relatively even goal expectations.