Guastatoya vs Malacateco

Guastatoya at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Malacateco, with 14 wins versus 17 for Malacateco across the full sample, but Guastatoya’s home-side profile is supported by 13 clean sheets and a goal difference that is closer to neutral (52 scored, 61 conceded). Their recent form is mixed, with WLWLL, which tempers how strongly they can be backed. Malacateco’s away results look less consistent, reflected in their recent form LLWLW and a weaker scoring output (47 scored) with 58 conceded. They also have 13 clean sheets, so they can be difficult to break down, but their overall win rate is not dominant enough to clearly outweigh Guastatoya’s home advantage. The market-style probabilities lean toward a home win at 48.0%, with a draw still quite plausible at 27.4% and Malacateco’s win at 24.6%. For goals, the chance of over 2.5 is 44.0%, suggesting a relatively tight match is more likely than a high-scoring one. Both teams to score is estimated at 49.3%, so the safest expectation is not a clear one-sided scoring pattern. With confidence at 52 and risk marked high, the home win case is reasonable but not strongly supported, and a draw remains a key alternative outcome.