Gremio vs Sao Paulo

Gremio at home has a slightly weaker overall record than Sao Paulo’s away record, but its goal difference is close, with 22 scored and 26 conceded at home versus Sao Paulo’s 25 scored and 23 conceded away. That balance suggests the match could be competitive rather than one-sided. In recent form, Gremio’s sequence is DWLLD, while Sao Paulo’s is LDLLD, with both sides showing difficulty turning results into wins. The draw probability is relatively high at 27.2%, which fits the pattern of both teams struggling to consistently secure positive outcomes. For goals, the over 2.5 market is just under coin-flip at 45.7%, while both teams to score is more likely at 51.0%. With Gremio conceding 26 at home and Sao Paulo conceding 23 away, there is a reasonable chance both sides find scoring opportunities, even if the total-goal threshold is less certain. Overall, the home win lean (46.5% versus 26.3% away win) is supported more by the home advantage in the probabilities than by a clear form edge. Confidence is moderate (70) and risk is medium, so a draw remains a meaningful alternative outcome.