Gremio vs Bolívar
0–1Full timeThu, Jul 30, 10:00 PMArena do Grêmio
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk
Under 2.5 Goals
Gremio (WWDLL) project at 1.1 expected goals versus 1.2 for Bolívar (WWWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 41/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
41/100
Confidence
41/100
Head-to-Head
Bolívar 3-2 Gremio
2026-07-24T00:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
AI Reasoning
Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Under 2.5 Goals lean for Gremio vs Bolívar.
Data angle: team strength uses the 2026 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped.
Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed.
Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
Recorded forecast
Final score
0-1
Pre-kickoff call
Under 2.5 Goals · 58.8% → Won
Ranked probability score
0.2854 (uniform ≈ 0.222)
Recorded Thu, 30 Jul 2026 21:46 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.5. Counted in the public track record.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
