Goianésia vs Tupy FC
1–0Full timeSun, Aug 2, 07:00 PM
AI prediction
Home Win
Confidence 39/100
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk
Home Win
Goianésia (DW) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1 for Tupy FC (WLLLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 39/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
39/100
Confidence
39/100
Head-to-Head
Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Goianésia at home has a strong early start with 1 win and 1 draw from 2 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 2, including 1 clean sheet. That gives them a slight edge in match outcome, reflected in the home win probability of 57.5% versus 19.2% for Tupy FC.
Tupy FC’s away record is mixed, with 3 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses across 14 matches, and they’ve scored 17 while conceding 17. Their recent form is also inconsistent (WLLLD), which lowers their momentum going into this matchup.
The goal outlook is fairly balanced. Over 2.5 goals is only slightly below the midpoint at 49.4%, and both teams to score is favored at 52.2%, suggesting a game that could be open but not guaranteed to produce many goals.
With the home win probability only moderately higher than the draw (57.5% vs 23.3%) and the overall goal indicators near even, the home win lean is reasonable but not strongly supported, aligning with the relatively low confidence score of 39 and the high risk level.
Recorded forecast
Final score
1-0
Pre-kickoff call
Home Win · 41.0% → Won
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.