Glenorchy Knights (LLDLW) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.9 for Devonport City (LWWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 75/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
75/100
Devonport City 2-1 Glenorchy Knights
2026-05-09T06:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Devonport City 1-1 Glenorchy Knights
2025-08-09T06:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Glenorchy Knights 1-1 Devonport City
2025-06-14T07:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Devonport City 0-2 Glenorchy Knights
2025-04-05T05:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Glenorchy Knights 0-0 Devonport City
2024-09-07T06:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Glenorchy Knights 4-0 Devonport City
2024-07-13T08:30:00+02:00
Final score
1-2
Pre-kickoff call
Away Win · 62.6% → Won
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
AI prediction
Away Win
Confidence 75/100
Strongest cover
X2
81.7% probability
Risk classification
Medium
19.1% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
6 sources
46 price observations
Full distribution
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Glenorchy Knights
4/15 recent form points
Devonport City
9/15 recent form points
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.
Price interpretation
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Devonport City 1-1 Glenorchy Knights
2024-05-11T06:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Glenorchy Knights 0-2 Devonport City
2023-09-09T06:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Devonport City 3-1 Glenorchy Knights
2023-07-15T06:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Devonport City 2-0 Glenorchy Knights
2023-05-13T06:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home 1X2 | MarathonbetBest price +8.9% | 5.10 | 19.6% | 18.3% | -1.3% |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 20.0% | 18.3% | -1.7% | |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 20.0% | 18.3% | -1.7% | |
| 10Bet | 4.60 | 21.7% | 18.3% | -3.4% | |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 22.2% | 18.3% | -3.9% | |
| Unibet | 3.90 | 25.6% | 18.3% | -7.3% | |
Draw 1X2 | Bet365Best price +6.3% | 4.75 | 21.1% | 19.1% | -2.0% |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 21.1% | 19.1% | -2.0% | |
| 10Bet | 4.50 | 22.2% | 19.1% | -3.1% | |
| Marathonbet | 4.50 | 22.2% | 19.1% | -3.1% | |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 23.8% | 19.1% | -4.7% | |
| Unibet | 4.10 | 24.4% | 19.1% | -5.3% | |
Away 1X2 | UnibetBest price +8.7% | 1.61 | 62.1% | 62.6% | +0.5% |
| 10Bet | 1.48 | 67.6% | 62.6% | -5.0% | |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 67.6% | 62.6% | -5.0% | |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 69.4% | 62.6% | -6.8% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 69.4% | 62.6% | -6.8% | |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 69.4% | 62.6% | -6.8% | |
Under 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +7.7% | 3.50 | 28.6% | 28.7% | +0.1% |
| Unibet | 3.20 | 31.3% | 28.7% | -2.6% | |
| Marathonbet | 3.05 | 32.8% | 28.7% | -4.1% | |
Over 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +0.3% | 1.28 | 78.1% | 71.3% | -6.8% |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 78.1% | 71.3% | -6.8% | |
| Unibet | 1.27 | 78.7% | 71.3% | -7.4% | |
No BTTS | William HillBest price +1.9% | 2.70 | 37.0% | 34.7% | -2.3% |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 38.5% | 34.7% | -3.8% | |
Yes BTTS | William HillBest price | 1.40 | 71.4% | 65.3% | -6.1% |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 71.4% | 65.3% | -6.1% | |
Home or Draw Double Chance | 10BetBest price +5.5% | 2.50 | 40.0% | 0.0% | -40.0% |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 40.0% | 0.0% | -40.0% | |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 40.8% | 0.0% | -40.8% | |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 41.7% | 0.0% | -41.7% | |
| Marathonbet | 2.40 | 41.7% | 0.0% | -41.7% | |
| Unibet | 1.97 | 50.8% | 0.0% | -50.8% | |
Home or Away Double Chance | William HillBest price +5.6% | 1.20 | 83.3% | 0.0% | -83.3% |
| Unibet | 1.15 | 87.0% | 0.0% | -87.0% | |
| Betfair | 1.13 | 88.5% | 0.0% | -88.5% | |
| Bet365 | 1.12 | 89.3% | 0.0% | -89.3% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.12 | 89.3% | 0.0% | -89.3% | |
| 10Bet | 1.10 | 90.9% | 0.0% | -90.9% | |
Draw or Away Double Chance | UnibetBest price +3.0% | 1.16 | 86.2% | 0.0% | -86.2% |
| William Hill | 1.15 | 87.0% | 0.0% | -87.0% | |
| Betfair | 1.13 | 88.5% | 0.0% | -88.5% | |
| Bet365 | 1.12 | 89.3% | 0.0% | -89.3% | |
| 10Bet | 1.11 | 90.1% | 0.0% | -90.1% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.09 | 91.7% | 0.0% | -91.7% |
Ranked probability score
0.0867 (uniform ≈ 0.222)
Recorded Sat, 01 Aug 2026 06:28 UTC, before kickoff at 1.61 (Unibet), by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.