Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord

Fredrikstad at home have struggled for results, with 4 wins and 8 losses from 14 matches, and they’ve scored 15 while conceding 27. Their recent form is also weak, showing DWLLL in the latest stretch, with no clean sheets this season. Sandefjord away have been more stable defensively, keeping 4 clean sheets and conceding 20 in 14 matches, even though their scoring output is modest at 13. Their recent form is mixed but not as poor as Fredrikstad’s, with DLDLL in the latest games. The market probabilities suggest a slight edge to Fredrikstad for a home win (46.9% vs 26.9% for Sandefjord), but the draw is still fairly live (26.2%), so the home win case isn’t dominant. For goals, over 2.5 is just under a coin flip (49.9%), while both teams to score leans more likely (54.4%), which fits with Fredrikstad’s tendency to concede. Overall, the home win prediction aligns with the small probability advantage for Fredrikstad, but the medium risk reflects their poor recent form and the draw/low-margin nature of the matchup.